T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas | July 11, 2026 | Live on Paramount+
42 Days Out — McGregor Returns
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 is the most significant UFC event in years. Conor McGregor, 36, returns to the octagon after a shattered leg ended his fight with Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 — and that was 1,826 days ago. His opponent, Max Holloway, has been the most active and dominant featherweight in that time. UFC International Fight Week returns to Las Vegas on July 9–12, and the main event is appointment television.
This is your complete AI prediction guide for UFC 329 — all 5 main card fights, data-driven picks, and stylistic breakdowns.
Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2 | Welterweight
Let's be direct about the line: Max Holloway is -350 (implied ~78%). Conor McGregor is +275. The market isn't mispricing McGregor — it's pricing in everything we know and one thing we don't: does the leg hold up?
McGregor vs. Holloway 1 happened at UFC 156 in August 2013. McGregor won by unanimous decision — that was Holloway's UFC debut. He was 22. The version of Max Holloway fighting on July 11 is a 34-fight veteran who has held the featherweight title, defended it three times, and has wins over Jose Aldo (twice), Frankie Edgar, Anthony Pettis, Calvin Kattar, and Arnold Allen.
McGregor's last win was Nate Diaz at UFC 196 in March 2016. Since then: lost to Diaz (rematch), lost to Eddie Alvarez, lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov, lost to Dustin Poirier (twice, with the leg break ending the third fight). He's 3-4 in his last seven. None of those wins were at welterweight — the weight he returns to here.
For McGregor to win, he needs the leg to be structurally sound enough to load power, and he needs early round output before Holloway's pace overwhelms him. His best path is aggressive early, takedown attempts, and damage in clinch range.
For Holloway to win: survive Round 1, then impose the pace. He outpaces everyone. McGregor gassed in Round 3 against Dustin Poirier in their last meeting. Holloway's pace in Round 4–5 against elite opposition is as good as anyone in UFC history. The longer this goes, the harder it is for McGregor.
Scout Conor McGregor → | Scout Max Holloway → | View Head-to-Head Compare →
FightDeck AI Prediction: Max Holloway wins by unanimous decision in Round 5.
Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint-Denis | Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett (21-1-0) is a crowd favorite who lives in the moment — and that personality plays in the cage. Benoît Saint-Denis (13-1, 1 NC) is a French Marine who has finished his last four opponents inside the distance. The Pythonesque crowd energy for Pimblett masks a dangerous offensive package, but Saint-Denis has the power and durability to crack through it.
Pimblett has fought at UFC Apex and had success at lightweight, but against grapplers his striking defense becomes a liability. Saint-Denis is a durable pressure fighter with heavy hands and a ground game to back it up. Pimblett wins this if he catches Saint-Denis early with something illegal; the floor is low for him in rounds 2–3.
Scout Paddy Pimblett → | Scout Benoît Saint-Denis →
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista | Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen (15-5) is a former two-time UFC bantamweight title challenger with some of the most dynamic striking in the division. Mario Bautista (15-1) is on a six-fight winning streak and earned this main card spot through consistent finishes. Sandhagen's movement and range striking will be the difference here — Bautista has shown vulnerability to high-level footwork and lateral movement.
Bautista is dangerous early — his power catches people off-guard. But Sandhagen has been in there with Petr Yan and Song Yadong and has the experience edge in a three-round fight. Sandhagen wins a kickboxing-heavy decision if he stays patient and doesn't overcommit.
Scout Cory Sandhagen → | Scout Mario Bautista →
Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov | Light Heavyweight
Robert Whittaker makes his light heavyweight debut. The former UFC middleweight champion (37-6, 1 NC) has been a 185lb kingpin but moves up 20 pounds to face Nikita Krylov (29-8), one of the most submission-savvy finishers in MMA. This is a stylistic nightmare for Whittaker.
Krylov is a grappling specialist with 18 submission wins in his career. He can hang on the feet, but his path is dragging Whittaker to the mat and working from top position. Whittaker is smaller, has never fought at LHW, and will face a size and reach disadvantage that compounds late in the fight.
Whittaker's cardio and striking edge him into competitive rounds early, but the weight cut and size differential will cost him as the fight progresses. Krylov by late submission is the pick.
Scout Robert Whittaker → | Scout Nikita Krylov →
Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh | Flyweight
Brandon Royval (15-5) is a high-output, unorthodox striker with dangerous submission skills from bottom position. Lone'er Kavanagh (13-0) is an undefeated Canadian who has finished 10 of 13 opponents. This is a classic striking vs. grappling matchup in one of the deepest divisions in the UFC.
Royval's pace and cardio are elite at flyweight. Kavanagh is undefeated but hasn't faced Royval's level of competition yet. Royval wins this via output and cage cutting — Kavanagh has the power to end it early, but Royval's durability and activity across three rounds edge it out on the scorecards.
Scout Brandon Royval → | Scout Lone'er Kavanagh →
Bonus Fight: Leon Edwards vs. Daniel Rodriguez | Welterweight
Leon Edwards (22-1, 1 NC) is the UFC welterweight champion and hasn't lost since 2015. Daniel Rodriguez (19-3) is a durable, high-volume striker who has won 5 of his last 6. Edwards' distance management and jab-heavy approach will control the cage and win rounds. Rodriguez has the volume to keep it competitive, but Edwards' class at range is the deciding factor.
Scout Leon Edwards → | Scout Daniel Rodriguez →
How to Watch UFC 329
UFC 329: FightDeck AI Predictions Summary
Scout Every Fighter Before Fight Night
FightDeck builds complete AI-powered scout reports for every UFC fighter — fight history, stylistic tendencies, weaknesses, and matchup analysis. Know your opponent before they step into the cage.
Predictions reflect FightDeck's AI model based on historical fight data, stylistic matchup analysis, and current form. McGregor fight line via Tapology (June 2026). Always fight responsibly.